Talk:October surprise

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Hunter Biden article isn't an October surprise

The GOP has been obsessed with Hunter Biden since late 2019. Anyone following U.S. politics could have predicted that Republicans would release "damaging" information related to Hunter Biden as an October Surprise. Is an event really an October surprise if it is so easily foreseen by pundits all year? — Preceding unsigned comment added by Mazeprotection (talk • contribs) 20:07, 22 October 2020 (UTC)[reply]

While yes, it has been obvious that Giuliani was pushing for dirt on Hunter Biden in the Ukraine for this purpose, we rely on what the sources say, and the sources do discuss the laptop as an attempt at an October surprise. – Muboshgu (talk) 20:24, 22 October 2020 (UTC)[reply]

I haven't been following this story closely, but the conflict between Twitter and the New York Post may eventually be worth mentioning as an October surprise, as Trump's campaign is trying to use it and the more general issue of media censorship as one.^[1] With Greenwald's resignation from the Intercept,^[2] the issue has now clearly moved outside Trump's base, even while the Hunter Biden conspiracy theory itself is irrelevant. Really though it's too soon to say whether or not any of this story really ought to be regarded as an October surprise and we ought to wait until we see if the media or academia refer to any parts of it as October surprises because otherwise it's original research. --Bartholomite (talk) 21:41, 30 October 2020 (UTC)[reply]

I'm surprised that it isn't included, actually. An October "surprise" doesn't mean that it has to be completely unexpected (a literal surprise), the generally accepted definition as documented in this article is that it's got to be some news event which may influence an election, whether deliberately planned or spontaneously occurring. This event occurred very late in the election cycle, when October surprises occur; it was almost certainly deliberately planned by operatives such as Rudy Giuliani in the manner of traditional October surprises, and the intention was to shift voters in the 2020 election -- there's tons of commentary on it out there. It may not have been a particularly effective tactic -- as the original user pointed out, going after Hunter Biden was a move clearly telegraphed months if not years in advance -- but given the generally accepted view that Comey's letter re: Clinton's emails (which the Republican Party had been discussing for quite some time) was an October surprise, I see no reason to deny that characterization to the "we've got Hunter Biden's totally real laptops and/or emails and/or child porn" news story put out by Giuliani et al. RexSueciae (talk) 23:57, 5 November 2020 (UTC)[reply]

References

^ Torabi, Acyn (October 29, 2020). "Eric Trump claims his social media likes are being throttled and he thinks that's become the number one issue in politics over the past few weeks". Fox News via Twitter.
^ Greenwald, Glenn (October 29, 2020). "My Resignation From The Intercept".

Perhaps, Meadows revealed the Boss had relevant info in MAL safe? Wikipietime (talk) 18:22, 9 August 2022 (UTC)[reply]

Mar-a-Largo August 8 2022

Was the seizure a Trump plant of cooperative witness. Sources lacking credibility, presently. Wikipietime (talk) 18:20, 9 August 2022 (UTC)[reply]

1980 "October surprise" section should be updated to include 2023 confirmation of the conspiracy.

The section on the 1980 Reagan efforts to keep the Iranians from releasing American hostages should be updated to note that the conspiracy was confirmed to be real by people who were involved in it, per https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/18/us/politics/jimmy-carter-october-surprise-iran-hostages.html Rmd1023 (talk) 15:23, 31 May 2023 (UTC)[reply]

The NY Times article hardly confirms it. In fact, it raises a number of issues with the claims made. There has been a RFC on this on the October Surprise conspiracy theory talk page. Rja13ww33 (talk) 22:50, 31 May 2023 (UTC)[reply]

Clarifying criteria for adding examples

I removed the examples that were disputed instances of an October Surprise due to WP:Recentism and lack of consensus in reliable sources and wanted to start a discussion here on the inclusion criteria (guessing it isn't every surprising thing the might impact the race that occurs around October. This article gives a good overview of why I think we should approach this page by only adding examples with a near-consensus among reliable sources that the surprise is very significant to deciding who wins. Superb Owl (talk) 04:29, 14 October 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Following up on this, it is WP:OR/WP:SYNTH to simply add something to this page because it happened in October and it was surprising to you. Only what is termed an "October surprise" by RS belongs on this page. – Muboshgu (talk) 20:00, 31 October 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Should the Tony Hinchcliffe section be removed? A few reliable sources saying "this MIGHT be an october surprise for Pennsylvania" does not seem to fit this guideline. Especially since there are now reliable sources are also saying it is showing to be negligible in the outcome of the election, or that Trump is showing signs of recovering from it to a point where it won't matter. For example: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/11/04/latinos-decide-election-pennsylvania-00186534 I feel like that with the current state of the election this article should remain WP:SKEPOV until actual data unanimously shows that there was an effect from an event. GarlicBreadBen (talk) 17:14, 4 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

John Kelly's comments about "Hitler's Generals"

Would the recent comments that John Kelly made about Trump wanting generals like Hitler's meet the criteria for an october surprise? I haven't found any news outlets that directly calls it one, but it seems like it would fit the bill.

https://apnews.com/article/trump-john-kelly-nazis-hitler-87d672e1ec1a6645808050fc60f6b8bc Spatuladoom (talk) 18:00, 23 October 2024 (UTC)[reply]

I think we should only add those stories that are directly labeled October Surprises by multiple RSs. The article is now getting to the point where every story that breaks, somebody wants to add it (whether it is labeled that or not). To me, that goes against polices such as NOTNEWS.Rja13ww33 (talk) 20:48, 23 October 2024 (UTC)[reply]

I agree.--Jack Upland (talk) 00:10, 24 October 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Joe Biden's "The only garbage I see floating out there is his supporters" comment

Should Joe Biden's "The only garbage I see floating out there is his supporters" comment be mentionned? It is a direct response to something already mentioned in the article and Biden's comment is the one that may have influenced the outcome of th election (Donald Trump winning the state of Pennsylvania). BookNotion (talk) 21:37, 6 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Given that Trump won, I think it would be adequate to include this as part of the October surprise. The comments at the Madison Square Garden rally clearly did not have an impact on the election results (Trump won comfortably), but it is possible that the Democrats struggling to perform damage control after Biden arguably called tens of millions of Americans "garbage" in response to the Madison Square Garden incident indicates that Biden's comments may have had a larger impact than Hitchcliffe's. AmericanBaath (talk) 13:28, 9 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Is there any WP:RS that calls the comment an "October surprise"? If not, it's WP:OR. And the comment is not why Trump won. – Muboshgu (talk) 14:55, 9 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Death of Peanut the squirrel

I'm surprised this isn't mentioned already – even though the Peanut (squirrel) incident seems pretty minor compared to some other topics including the Hunter Biden laptop debacle, there's a good case to be made that several elements of the story qualify it as an October Surprise. The squirrel was killed six days before the election and from then until Nov. 5th was a massive topic of outrage on social media and in conventional news. Trump campaign officials including Trump himself spun the incident into an example of government overreach blamed on the Biden/Harris admin, and Kamala Harris herself was asked about her responsibility at a press conference. The incredibly close proximity to the election, the widespread outrage, and the dedicated weaponization of the incident by the Trump campaign are all October Surprise-worthy. I would guess the lack of recognition so far is because the story almost immediately disappeared from the public view after Trump's election victory – perhaps further proof that the incident's real value was as a political weapon, no longer interesting once it could no longer influence the election. Ggbie (talk) 09:01, 15 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

[1] Torabi, Acyn (October 29, 2020). "Eric Trump claims his social media likes are being throttled and he thinks that's become the number one issue in politics over the past few weeks". Fox News via Twitter.

[2] Greenwald, Glenn (October 29, 2020). "My Resignation From The Intercept".

[1]

[2]